Plug in your headcount, industry, and average salary. Get a five-year exposure model — the number you take to the CFO before someone else makes the decision for you.
Adjust the sliders to see your specific picture.
This is a directional model. A 72-hour Workforce Risk Assessment scores your actual roles, not generic categories.
Book a discovery call →Most workforce-risk vendors hide their model behind a "talk to sales" wall so the number you see can be tuned to whatever closes the deal. We publish ours. If you disagree with the assumptions, you can argue with us specifically — that's a feature.
Each industry has a base "high-risk role" percentage. This is the share of total headcount sitting in roles that the Displacement Atlas scores 60+ (high or critical). It's derived from public layoff data, BLS occupational categories, and the role-mix research that informs the atlas.
"At-risk" doesn't mean "will be laid off." We discount by a probability factor reflecting the likelihood that a given high-risk role actually gets eliminated within your time horizon, vs. being absorbed, redefined, or upskilled in place. Default factor: 40% over 5 years. This is conservative — published forecasts range from 25% to 60% depending on which Goldman / WEF / McKinsey study you trust.
A single displacement isn't just severance. It's:
Total all-in cost per displaced role: ~1.5× the annual salary. This matches the SHRM and BCG estimates within a reasonable band.
The 5-year model assumes roughly linear distribution. A 1-year model captures only the displacement happening right now. A 10-year model captures the long arc but introduces compounding uncertainty. Pick the horizon you're being asked to plan for.
If we modeled all of those, the headline number would be 2–3× larger. We left them out so you can argue with us about the ones that matter to your specific situation, not the ones that are easy to hand-wave.